The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has located an area of disturbance between Maldives and Lakshadweep, 1,665 km north-northwest of Diego Garcia island.
Very low vertical wind shear, proper window effect on top and suitable sea-surface temperatures of 28- to 30 deg Celsius in the vicinity would allow the system to develop.
‘Low’ already set?
The system currently features wind speeds of 15-28 km/hr, which means it has become a low-pressure area. India Met Department (IMD) confirmation to this effect is awaited.
Vertical wind shear refers to the cross-winds that kills a storm while a ‘window’ on its top indicates its potential to breath in to grow and sustain itself.
Warm sea-surface supplies moisture, the fuel the system needs to feed itself to grow in strength. This environment is conducive for its rapid growth into a powerful cyclone, the JTWC says. It cites global models as projecting that the evolving storm would move in a north-westward direction over the next two to four days, but did not suggest an area for landfall.
Meanwhile, the nearest islands nations of Maldives to the South and Sri Lanka to the East have already put out notices of rough weather evolving in their vicinity.
High winds, showers
The Maldives Meteorological Service said that winds are westerly to north-westerly of up to 42 km/hr in speed over the central atolls and slightly less elsewhere. But winds may gust to 72 km/hr and between 79 km/hr during showers. The seas would be ‘rough’ (wave heights of up to eight ft).
The Sri Lankan Met said that the ‘low level atmospheric disturbance in its vicinity’ will enhance the prevailing showery condition.
Heavy falls above 10 cm can be expected at some places in the North-West, Central, North-Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Mannar district.
There may be temporary localised strong winds during thunder showers. The Met has warned the public to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by lightning activity.
The Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre of the Lankan Met Office has put out a heavy wind and strong rain advisory issued for its north-western seas.
The stretch extending from Matara to Potuvil via Hambanthota can be fairly rough at times with winds accelerating from 40- to 45 km/hr at times. Temporarily strong gusty winds and rough seas can be expected during thunder showers.
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