The India Met Department (IMD) said this (Tuesday) morning that a low-pressure area persisting over the Equatorial Indian Ocean off the South Sri Lanka coast from the previous day has become well-marked.
The IMD has maintained its outlook for the low to become the next monsoon depression over the South-East Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep-Maldives area by tomorrow (Wednesday).
The depression becomes the second in the Arabian Sea of the North-East monsoon after a predecessor went on to become supercyclone Kyarr, which is set to weaken off the coast of Oman in the Arabian Gulf.
The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places over South Kerala and South Tamil Nadu, with heavy falls at isolated places during the next three days.
The showers would escalate to become very heavy falls at isolated places over the same region both today (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday). Light to moderate rainfall is also forecast at most places today, with very heavy falls at isolated places over Lakshadweep and extremely heavy falls on Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong winds clocking 30-40 km/hr and gusting to 50 km/hr may prevail over the Comorin and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and its neighbourhood today, the IMD said.
Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr (associated with depression) are forecast over the South-East Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep-Maldives areas on Wednesday and Thursday.
The sea condition will be rough to very rough (wave heights of up to 13-20 ft) over the Comorin area and its neighbourhood today and the South-East Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep-Maldives areas on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the Comorin-Maldives-Lakshadweep areas and the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, international forecasters do not have a consensus on the intensity and track of the projected second depression in the Arabian Sea.
The Canadian Meteorological Centre is the most outspoken of these models surveyed by BusinessLine on Tuesday morning, predicting a minimal cyclone heading towards Oman/ Yemen from India’s West Coast
The US Naval Global Environmental Model and the UK Met Office model (see below) show almost identical tracks towards the Gujarat coast – made infamous by very severe cyclone Ockhi of 2017 – for a much weaker system this time round.
While the US Navy model shows no more than a depression travelling along India’s West Coast all the way up to Gujarat, the UK Met Office model suspects a stronger system is there for the asking.
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